Could Arsenal fail to qualify for next season’s Champions League?

Arsenal‘s 2024-25 campaign looks set to conclude in trophyless disappointment after their Champions League semi-final elimination – but could it end in out-and-out disaster?

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners had looked to have second place sewn up, having occupied the runner-up spot for almost the entirety of the season, but they’re in danger of falling down the table after suffering a blip in form.

A second-place finish, as well as memories that will last a lifetime of that Champions League triumph over holders Real Madrid, would have represented a respectable return from a year in which they’ve suffered rotten luck with injuries.

Could Arsenal somehow find themselves out of the Champions League spots when all is said and done? We’ve taken a closer look.

The run-in

Liverpool wrapped up the title nice and early after Arsenal’s failure to put together a decent winning run together all season, but their Premier League form has suffered particularly after keeping one eye on their Champions League campaign.

It’s three successive defeats in all competitions, four without a win, and just one win from their last five outings in the Premier League (three in 10). Arteta will be targeting an uptick in form if they’re to avoid dropping a place or two in the table.

Out of the Champions League, Arsenal’s race becomes simplified. Three league games in three weeks. Plenty of time to rest and recharge.

First up the Gunners face Liverpool, where they’ll give a guard of honour to Arne Slot’s champions.

You imagine that Slot will make fewer changes than he did last week against Chelsea and aim to cap off their Premier League title victory with a statement victory in front of what will likely be a bouncing Anfield.

Of course, it’s a tricky test but Arsenal ought to take confidence from their recent record in big games – it’s over two years since they last suffered a league defeat to a fellow ‘big six’ team.

Then Arsenal host Newcastle, who are one of the teams that could conceivably finish above them and have the bit between their teeth in their own bid to qualify for the Champions League.

The Magpies have been a thorn in Arsenal’s side in recent times, having beaten them in all three meetings (the league game at St. James’ Park and both legs of the League Cup semis) this season.

The pressure will be on should Arsenal lose both those games, but on the final weekend they can breathe a sigh of relief at going away to Southampton – one of the worst teams in Premier League history, with just two wins all season and currently tying Derby County’s worst-ever Premier League points tally.

Saints are already guaranteed to end up bottom of this season’s table.

The chasing pack

Due in part to Arsenal’s strong results in Europe, UEFA’s coefficient system has awarded the Premier League an extra qualification place for next season’s Champions League.

Fifth will be enough to qualify for the Champions League, meaning that no fewer than four teams would have to leapfrog Arsenal in the final weeks if they’re to do the unthinkable and drop out.

Man City look the likeliest. They’re only three points behind and in excellent form. Pep Guardiola’s side have won their last four in the league, booked their place in the FA Cup final, and have a favourable run-in – Southampton away, Bournemouth at home and Fulham away.

Newcastle had 2nd place in their own hands before their draw against Brighton at the weekend. They’re only four points behind Arsenal but can whittle that down to one with a win at the Emirates.

They could even move up there and then should they beat Chelsea and Arsenal drop points at Anfield this weekend. Eddie Howe’s side then host Everton on the final day.

Chelsea facing Newcastle this weekend is a blessing if Arsenal are looking over their shoulder. A guarantee of one of them, if not both, dropping points eases pressure when they kick off in Merseyside later that afternoon.

The Blues have been unconvincing in recent months but seem to have got their act together at exactly the right moment with three successive league wins. They’re also four points behind Arsenal and face Manchester United at home and Nottingham Forest away after their trip to Tyneside.

Forest and Aston Villa round off the chasing pack for Champions League qualification, but they’re more realistically eyeing up Newcastle and Chelsea as opposed to Arsenal. They’re six and seven points behind respectively.

What do Arsenal need?

Stats firm OPTA believe that Arsenal are over 99.9% certain to qualify for the Champions League.

You can look at all the permutations but the simple fact is that a win against a truly dismal Southampton on the final day will be enough. Even if they lose to both Liverpool and Newcastle, that’ll leave them on 70 points.

Villa can get no more than 69 by winning all their remaining games, while Forest can still end up on 70 (but they’re 21 behind on goal difference).

Chelsea’s games against Newcastle and Forest mean that fifth is almost certainly the lowest Arsenal can finish. In all likelihood they’ve already got enough points for Champions League qualification as it is.

With two tricky games coming up, injuries biting and questionable form, it’s not out of the question that Man City and Newcastle or Chelsea catch them. But given they play one another, we’ll surely not see both Newcastle and Chelsea do it. OPTA place Arsenal’s chances of finishing fifth at just 1.1%.

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