How long would it take Lamine Yamal to break Lionel Messi’s Barcelona goalscoring record?
It’s not fair to compare anyone to Lionel Messi, especially a 17-year-old with the eyes of the world upon him. We’re gonna do it anyway, though, because it’s literally our job.
Lamine Yamal feels like the closest we’ve come, so far, to finding a successor to Messi’s throne at Barcelona. Of course, he’s well aware of the hype:
“Lionel Messi is the GOAT. To be compared to him is incredible, but nobody can be compared to him. I hope to have even half the career Messi’s had.”
Ansu Fati threatened to do fill the void — even took Leo’s number 10 shirt when the Argentinian left for Paris — but Fati plays on the left and injuries hampered his progression, resulting in a forgettable loan to Brighton and career stagnation.
Who else we got? Bojan? Deulofeu? Iturbe? Muniain? None of them came close—let’s be honest. How could they? Messi changed everything. It’s highly likely his Barcelona goalscoring record will never be beaten. Not impossible, though. And, truly, Yamal could be the one.
There are parallels, of course. Both Messi and Yamal generally play off the right wing, they’re both left-footers who like to cut inside, they’re both products of La Masia, and they both started out very young at Barcelona.
Yamal actually has a bit of a head start. When Messi was 17—Yamal’s current age—he’d played just nine games for Barca, scoring one goal. Yamal has already played a full season incorporating 50 games and seven goals, and he’s only just turned 17.
In Messi’s second season at Barca, the equivalent of what Yamal is heading into in 2024-25, the Argentinian managed eight goals in 25 games. Yamal is well placed to exceed that total this season—in fact, you’d expect him to.
Leo’s third season saw him notching 17 goals, followed by a 16-goal campaign in 2007-08. Then he went f*cking nuclear. For the next 13 seasons, Messi scored a minimum of 31 goals per season. He scored 50+ goals in six separate seasons… It’s not natural.
Right now, Spain’s golden boy is ahead of the GOAT. He’s on course, but an awful lot is going to have to go in Yamal’s favour if he’s going to succeed in dethroning Messi.
READ NEXT: Comparing Lamine Yamal and Endrick’s wild career stats to date: goals, assists, trophies…
TRY A QUIZ: Can you name every team Lionel Messi has scored 5+ goals against?
First, Yamal is going to have to avoid major injuries. Ansu Fati fell victim to that particular stumbling block, and it’s derailed his entire career. Once established in the team, Messi played 40+ games every single season whilst with the Blaugrana. One serious injury could destroy Yamal’s chances of surpassing the great one.
Secondly, an obvious point but he’ll have to stay at Barcelona. Very few clubs could’ve afforded Messi in his prime. Real Madrid, perhaps, but Leo was never going to do that to Barca. Now, there are far more mega-rich clubs that could theoretically afford a talent like Yamal. Financial fair play should mean that clubs can’t just spend indiscriminately, but those rules and guidelines change regularly.
Thirdly, he’ll have to have a team around him that allows him to perform at the peak of his abilities. Messi had Guardiola as coach during his meteoric rise, he had Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Ronaldinho, Villa, Rakitic, Jordi Alba…
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QUIZ: Can you name Barcelona’s top ‘not Messi’ scorer for every season since 2000?
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Barca are nowhere near as stacked these days, and their style of play has shifted. They’re a little less fluid and a little less conducive to a Messi/Yamal-esque acting as the attacking focal point. Robert Lewandowski leads the line—a true number 9, the likes of which were largely absent during Messi’s era, allowing Leo to reintroduce the sort of ‘false 9’ position rarely seen in Europe since the pre-war era.
Mainly, though, Lamine Yamal will have to absolutely explode in the next couple of years. Messi was completely untouchable for over a decade. Opposition teams didn’t know what to do with him. Yamal is an incredible talent, but he hasn’t freaked us out in the same way that young Messi did yet.
They’re slightly different kinds of player. Messi was/is recognisable by his subterranean centre of gravity, the sheer amount of touches he takes on the ball, that tiny gait. Yamal is a little more fluid, a little more languid, a little more tricksy. He’s aware of it, too.
“I’ve always said Messi is the best player in history but the one I liked to watch was Neymar.” The Spaniard told The New York Times.
Yamal is ahead of time on the journey toward Barca greatness, but the game is different now than it was back then. The Spaniard needs the planets to align, he needs unfaltering self-belief, and he needs a hell of a lot of luck over the next decade and a half, at least.
To answer the question in the headline, Yamal would need to average about 43 goals a season – for each of the next 15 seasons(!) – taking him to the age of 32, if he’s to ever catch Messi’s total of 672 Barcelona goals.
If he goes on to boast a similar longevity and stays at his hometown club until the age of 37, he’d still need to average 33 goals a season for two whole decades – taking us to 2044. That’s a number that makes us feel a bit ill, in all honesty. And when we spell it out like that, it sounds like an impossible feat.
Who knows, though? Maybe we really are looking at the heir to the throne…