Could Harry Kane’s trophy curse continue in 2024-25? Bayern’s Bundesliga chances assessed
Harry Kane‘s quest for a trophy was dealt another blow last night after Bayern Munich were eliminated from the Champions League by Inter – but could the curse continue before the end of the season?
This season’s Champions League final is on Bayern’s home patch, but the Bundesliga giants won’t have a chance to exorcise painful memories of the 2012 final defeat to Chelsea after going out at the quarter-final stage.
Kane, Bayern’s record signing, missed a brilliant chance to put the Bavarians ahead in the first leg – which ultimately proved costly as they were defeated 2-1 on home soil.
The England captain went on to open the scoring, equalising the tie, at the San Siro. But Serie A leaders Inter responded superbly with a quickfire double.
Kane’s former Tottenham team-mate Eric Dier scored in the closing stages to make it 2-2, but Inter held on doggedly to their one-goal advantage on aggregate.
It was another bitter pill to swallow for the 31-year-old, who endured an unthinkable trophyless debut season in Germany following Bayern’s 11 Bundesliga titles in a row.
He won the European Golden Shoe after a prolific goalscoring season, but Bayern couldn’t keep up with Xabi Alonso’s revelatory Bayer Leverkusen, who emerged out of nowhere to go unbeaten in the Bundesliga and claim a domestic double with the DFB Pokal.
Could Kane’s long wait for a trophy continue in 2024-25? We’ve taken a closer look.
The Bundesliga title race
Having replaced Thomas Tuchel with Vincent Kompany, Bayern have bounced back from their desperately disappointing 2023-24 campaign in the mood to put things right.
They went top of the table back in September and have remained there throughout, keeping up a relentless pace and losing just twice all season.
Kane has once again regularly banged in the goals, surely set for a second successive Bundesliga Golden Boot with 23 goals to date – six more than Patrik Schick of Leverkusen.
Leverkusen, meanwhile, have lost their knack for late wins. The reigning champions have only lost two league matches in 2024-25, but they’ve lost ground on Bayern after drawing nine of 29 outings so far.
Alonso’s side did go on a solid winning run of eight Bundesliga matches from November until January, but they haven’t kept up the relentless consistency required to keep the pace at the top.
Still, Bayern have actually threatened to make things interesting in recent weeks. Having struggled with injuries to key players – Alphonso Davies, Jamal Musiala and Dayot Upamecano in particular – they’ve dropped points in three of their last five Bundesliga outings.
A shock 3-2 defeat at home to relegation-battlers Bochum, who have since lost four on the spin, was followed by a 1-1 draw against Union Berlin and an entertaining 2-2 draw against old rivals Borussia Dortmund last weekend.
However, Leverkusen have also struggled with the absence of star man Florian Wirtz and have also suffered with iffy form around their Champions League Round of 16 elimination at the hands of Bayern.
They lost 2-0 at home to Werder Bremen last month and, after a three-match winning win, drew 0-0 at home to Union Berlin last weekend.
All of which is to say that Bayern have one hand back on the Bundesliga trophy and it would take an almighty upset for them to blow it from here. They’re six points in front with just five games left to play, although they do have some tricky hurdles remaining.
The gap is effectively seven points, with Bayern boasting a massively superior goal difference to Leverkusen – +54 compared to +29. The Bundesliga uses goal difference like the Premier League, rather than the head-to-head tie-breaker favoured in La Liga.
Nine points from their remaining five games would secure them the title. They have Heidenheim (16th), Mainz (5th), RB Leipzig (4th), Borussia Monchengladbach (7th) and Hoffenheim (14th) remaining.
And they’d only require nine points should Leverkusen put the pressure on by winning all of their remaining games, which recent form suggests is unlikely.
To put it in simpler terms, some bookmakers have Bayern about 1/250 on to win the title and Leverkusen as long as 22/1.
So prepare to see Kane soaked in rich Bavarian beer, holding the Bundesliga shield, at some point in the next few weeks.
Should Bayern mess things up from here, we might really start believing someone put a curse on the striker.
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