What do Scotland need to happen to qualify for the World Cup knockouts?
Scotland’s thumping at the hands of Brazil has made qualifying for the knockouts an anxious and probably doomed mission.
Scotland self-destructed to a 3-0 defeat at the hands of the five-time winners, putting them on three points and a goal difference of -3 as the group stage comes to an end, but they are being made to wait to see if they are going home or not.
As it stands, Scotland are into the round of 32 as the eighth-best third-placed side, but seven of the 12 groups still have the final match to be played.
Football Meets Data has crunched the numbers and after the match gave Scotland a 59% chance of qualifying. But South Africa’s unexpected win over South Korea pushed that figure down to 41%.
It plummeted further – to just 13.4 per cent – after Ecuador beat Germany, Sweden drew with Japan and Paraguay played out a goalless stalemate with Australia to lock in three of the third-place berths.
For Scotland, it will be a case of getting past a hurdle every few hours as they cannot afford for two teams to move above them in the rankings.
Already ahead of them are the third place teams from Group B, D, E, F, L, A and J.
In Group J, Scotland would prefer a winner out of Austria v Algeria for both are on three points. The preference would be Austria to win and put two past Algeria, dropping their goal difference to -4.
In Group L, the key game is Ghana v Croatia and Scotland will want the former to win that by three goals. Old enemies England could also knock Scotland out if they lose to Panama.
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And while these are all preferable outcomes, there are some matches where Scotland need a result.
Behind them in the third-place rankings currently are Group H, G, K, and I.
In Group G, Andy Robertson will hope his former team-mate Mo Salah can do him a favour by his Egypt beating Iran. That would ensure the third-place team finishes below three points.
Group H is a similar story as Scotland want Spain to beat Uruguay so the third-best team can only be on two points.
In Group I, it comes down to Senegal v Iraq with both on zero points heading into their final fixture. Scotland really need Iraq to win or draw that as Senegal are currently on a -3 goal difference. Any win for Sadio Mane’s side would put them above Scotland.
In Group K, Scotland need either a draw or an Uzbekistan win in their final match against DR Congo. The African side are on one point with a goal difference of -1 currently.
In summary, Scotland need:
* Egypt to beat Iran
* Iraq to avoid defeat against Senegal
* Spain to beat Uruguay
* Uzbekistan to avoid defeat to DR Congo
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