Newcastle & Crystal Palace dire in 2026-27 xG tables, with Man Utd still surprisingly decent

It’s still early days in the 2026-27 Premier League season, and the table still taking shape after returning from the first international break. But what do the underlying statistics tell us? Which teams are playing better than their results might suggest, and which teams are overperforming?

That’s where good old ‘expected goals’, rattler of Proper Football Men across the country, helps us out. We’ve delved into the data to see which teams are doing best and worst in terms of the quality of chances they’ve created and faced.

After a third successive win at the weekend, Brighton & Hove Albion are the division’s top-scoring team – and that’s borne out by their underlying numbers, having created 12.9xG, comfortably the highest total in the division.

The Seagulls are overperforming their underlying xG numbers more than any other team, but creating bagloads of chances and being clinical with them is a pretty deadly combination.

Elsewhere, under-pressure Michael Carrick might be heartened to learn that Manchester United rank fifth in the Premier League for xG, while Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea are all unsurprisingly in the top half. Brentford are up in third, while newly-promoted Ipswich Town are doing alright on that front too.

At the other end, you won’t be at all shocked to learn that Arsenal have easily the best overall xG against numbers in the Premier League. The reigning champions have earned their reputation as the best defensive side in the country, which is underlined by conceding just 4.7xG against them this season, a full 2.5 fewer than any other side.

Manchester City rank second for xG difference, although their defensive numbers took a bit of a battering in their bonkers 5-3 victory over Sunderland before the international break, in which they conceded a club record 4.61xG. Even so, their healthy numbers at both ends suggest they’re right in the mix alongside Arsenal.

Brighton, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Manchester United and Liverpool are also registering healthy xG differences, while Forest surprisingly rank second for xG against, having conceded just 7.2xG so far.

Taking a look at the picture as a whole, Carrick’s Manchester United are still among the biggest xG underperformers at this fledgling stage of the campaign. They rank sixth for expected goal difference and have nine expected points, level with Brentford, Everton and Bournemouth.

If you put your faith in this data and trust that underlying numbers will eventually be reflected in results, the Red Devils will be just fine. On the other hand, if they continue to underperform on both fronts for a sustained period of time, that might suggest a more chronic issue with their finishing and goalkeeper.

On the inverse, Tottenham might expect to be doing marginally better than their results suggest – although the picture still isn’t great, with Spurs sitting joint-17th for xG and 10th for xG against.

The underlying numbers are probably most concerning for Crystal Palace and Newcastle United, who sit bottom for xG difference and expected points respectively. Villa aren’t faring much better, ranking 17th for xG difference.

Here are all the relevant 2026-27 Premier League tables for xG so far, with the data taken from FotMob.

xG (Expected Goals)

1. Brighton & Hove Albion — 12.9 (+5.1)
2. Manchester City — 11.8 (+4.2)
3. Brentford — 11.0 (+1.0)
4. Arsenal — 10.8 (-0.8)
5. Manchester United — 10.7 (-1.7)
6. Nottingham Forest — 10.6 (-5.6)
7. Sunderland — 10.5 (-4.5)
8. Fulham — 9.6 (-3.6)
9. Liverpool — 9.3 (-2.3)
10. Everton — 9.0 (-1.0)
11. Ipswich Town — 8.9 (+0.1)
12. Crystal Palace — 8.7 (+0.3)
13. Chelsea — 8.4 (+6.6)
14. Leeds United — 8.3 (-0.3)
15. AFC Bournemouth — 8.1 (-1.1)
16. Aston Villa — 6.9 (-0.9)
17. Tottenham Hotspur — 6.6 (-3.6)
18. Hull City — 6.6 (+1.4)
19. Newcastle United — 5.3 (+3.7)
20. Coventry City — 4.9 (-3.9)

xGA (Expected Goals Against)

1. Arsenal — 4.7 (+0.3)
2. Nottingham Forest — 7.2 (+0.8)
3. Liverpool — 7.4 (-0.4)
4. AFC Bournemouth — 8.0 (+5.0)
5. Manchester City — 8.2 (-3.2)
6. Everton — 8.3 (-3.3)
7. Manchester United — 8.4 (+0.6)
8. Brentford — 8.6 (-2.6)
9. Coventry City — 8.6 (+1.4)
10. Tottenham Hotspur — 8.7 (+0.3)
11. Leeds United — 8.8 (-3.8)
12. Hull City — 9.1 (-3.1)
13. Newcastle United — 9.1 (-0.1)
14. Brighton & Hove Albion — 9.4 (-4.4)
15. Sunderland — 10.1 (+1.9)
16. Chelsea — 10.2 (+2.8)
17. Fulham — 10.3 (-0.3)
18. Aston Villa — 10.3 (+0.7)
19. Ipswich Town — 10.8 (+1.2)
20. Crystal Palace — 12.8 (-0.8)

xG Difference (xG – xGA)

1. Arsenal — 6.1
2. Manchester City — 3.6
3. Brighton & Hove Albion — 3.5
4. Nottingham Forest — 3.4
5. Brentford — 2.4
6. Manchester United — 2.3
7. Liverpool — 1.9
8. Everton — 0.7
9. Sunderland — 0.4
10. AFC Bournemouth — 0.1
11. Leeds United — -0.5
12. Fulham — -0.7
13. Chelsea — -1.8
14. Ipswich Town — -1.9
15. Tottenham Hotspur — -2.1
16. Hull City — -2.5
17. Aston Villa — -3.4
18. Coventry City — -3.7
19. Newcastle United — -3.8
20. Crystal Palace — -4.1

xPTS (Expected Points)

1. Arsenal — 13 (+2)
2. Manchester City — 11 (+7)
3. Nottingham Forest — 11 (-6)
4. Brighton & Hove Albion — 10 (+3)
5. Liverpool — 10 (-1)
6. Manchester United — 9 (-3)
7. Brentford — 9 (+1)
8. Everton — 9 (+1)
9. AFC Bournemouth — 9 (-6)
10. Sunderland — 8 (-4)
11. Leeds United — 8 (+1)
12. Tottenham Hotspur — 8 (-5)
13. Ipswich Town — 8 (+1)
14. Fulham — 8 (-6)
15. Chelsea — 7 (+3)
16. Aston Villa — 7 (-2)
17. Hull City — 6 (+3)
18. Crystal Palace — 6 (+1)
19. Coventry City — 4 (-1)
20. Newcastle United — 4 (+4)

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