What last season’s run-in & equivalent results tell us about the Arsenal – Liverpool title race

Liverpool have a commanding lead over Arsenal at the summit of the Premier League table, but recent history has shown the title race might not be over just yet.

Arne Slot’s are six points ahead of second-place Arsenal with a game in hand, while three successive statement-making league wins over West Ham, Leicester and Tottenham over the Christmas period have seen some pundits declare the league title as good as theirs already.

But after some wobbles earlier in the campaign, Arsenal have kept the pace with Slot’s Reds by also winning their last three matches, including an impressive 3-1 comeback victory away to Brentford on New Year’s Day.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta refuses to believe that Arsenal are out of the race, while Chelsea surely are after suffering back-to-back defeats to Fulham and Ipswich in the post-Christmas period.

“It doesn’t depend on us,” Arteta told reporters ahead of Arsenal’s victory over Brentford.

“But we have to continue to be like a hammer, be there every day, every day. If someone wins all the matches then we congratulate them and go to the next season. If they don’t – and in history, it hasn’t happened – then we will be there.”

Arsenal can only afford to drop seven more points in the entire second half of the season if they’re to match their 89-point tally from last season, but Arteta believes that his squad have demonstrated that they’re still improving.

“We’ve proved that already this season, I’m sure of that,” the Arsenal manager continued.

“If this had happened last season – the number of games we’ve played with 10 men [after red cards], the injuries in the squad, for sure it would be difficult to be in the stages of the competitions we are in now.

“So, for sure, the team has made another step. The team is evolving and adapting to new circumstances and now we have another one with more games with less players. So let’s face it.”

READ NEXT: The Premier League ‘big six’ head-to-head table of 2024-25 so far: Liverpool miles clear

TRY A QUIZ: Can you name every player to play for both Arsenal & Liverpool in the Premier League?

Here are some key stats and figures from last season, recent history and the run-in for both Arsenal and Liverpool that make us believe the title race isn’t over yet:

• From New Year’s Day until the end of the season, Arsenal took nine more points than Liverpool – and with one fewer game played. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners took 49 points from their last 18 matches, winning 16, drawing one and losing one.
• Should Arsenal once again take up that relentless pace and take 49 points from the 19 matches in the second half of the season, that would take them to a total tally of 88 points.
• Should Liverpool repeat their results from their last 20 matches last season (43 points; 13 wins, four draws, three losses) they too would finish on 88 points.
• On New Year’s Day last year, Liverpool held a five-point lead over the Gunners and ended up finishing seven points behind. Another twelve-point swing would of course see them switch positions in the final table, even if Liverpool were to win their game in hand away to Everton.
• Liverpool would be unfortunate to suffer the same level of injuries again, with star man Mohamed Salah returning from AFCON with a hamstring problem and regular first-teamers such as Darwin Nunez, Dominik Szoboszlai, Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Diogo Jota and Joel Matip all spending time in the treatment room during the run-in.
• By the same token, it already appears unlikely that Arsenal will keep most of their key players fit and available for the run-in once again, with the talismanic Bukayo Saka already sidelined for the foreseeable future.
• In terms of their remaining fixtures this season, Liverpool still have Chelsea (A), Manchester United (H), Arsenal (H), Manchester City (A), Aston Villa (A), Everton (A), Brighton (A) and Crystal Palace (H) still to come – all of which Liverpool failed to win last season, dropping 18 points.
• For Arsenal, they only have Aston Villa (H), Tottenham (H), West Ham (H), Fulham (H), Liverpool (A) to come in terms of fixtures whereby they dropped points (11) last season.