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Analysing where each Premier League club could finish this season

Ben Stewart •

We are now approaching the final few months of this Premier League season and there’s still everything to play for at the top and bottom of the league.

Thanks to the FiveThirtyEight algorithm, we have been able to work out the probability of where each Premier League club will finish this season based on a series of underlying factors.

Arsenal currently lead the way in the league and Mikel Arteta’s side have a 55% chance of being crowned champions as things stand. Manchester City on the other hand, are slightly behind with a 45% chance of winning the league.

Pep Guardiola’s side are more than capable of going on a winning run and we’re expecting the title race to go right down to the wire. With Arsenal currently holding a five-point advantage, it’s theirs to lose right now.

Elsewhere in the league, the battle for the top four is continuing to heat up. Following Liverpool’s 7-0 demolition of Manchester United, their probability of making it into the top four has shot up.

Based on the current probabilities, Liverpool are more likely to finish in the top four than Tottenham, who have been given a 17% chance of finishing fourth this season.

Chelsea’s season looks like it is all but over as they currently have less than a 1% chance of making it into the top four. Having only picked up 34 points so far, it has been a season to forget for Graham Potter and his players.

The bottom of the league is just as exciting as things are at the top. Bournemouth, Southampton and Everton are the most likely sides to be relegated as the likes of Nottingham Forest and Leeds have a slightly better probability of survival.

We’ve gathered all of the probability data so that you can see where each Premier League club can finish this season and how likely they are to end up in that position.

Arsenal
1st: 55%
2nd: 42%
3rd: 3%
4th or below: <1%

Manchester City
1st: 45%
2nd: 50%
3rd: 5%
4th or below: <1%

Manchester United
1st: <1%
2nd: 6%
3rd: 46%
4th: 22%
5th: 12%
6th: 8%
7th or below: 5%

Liverpool
1st: <1%
2nd: 1%
3rd: 16%
4th: 26%
5th: 22%
6th: 16%
7th: 10%
8th or below: 7%

Tottenham
1st or 2nd: <1%
3rd: 11%
4th: 17%
5th: 19%
6th: 21%
7th: 10%
8th: 9%
9th or below: 4%

Brighton
1st or 2nd: <1%
3rd: 10%
4th: 16%
5th: 19%
6th: 19%
7th: 17%
8th: 10%
9th or below: 8%

Newcastle
1st or 2nd: <1%
3rd: 9%
4th: 15%
5th: 19%
6th: 19%
7th: 18%
8th: 10%
9th or below: 9%

Brentford
2nd or 3rd: <1%
4th: 3%
5th: 5%
6th: 9%
7th: 14%
8th: 21%
9th: 19%
10th: 15%
11th: 8%
12th or below: 4%

Chelsea
2nd, 3rd or 4th: <1%
5th: 2%
6th: 4%
7th: 9%
8th: 17%
9th: 22%
10th: 21%
11th: 14%
12th or below: 9%

Fulham
3rd or 4th: <1%
5th: 1%
6th: 3%
7th: 7%
8th: 15%
9th: 23%
10th: 23%
11th: 16%
12th: 7%
13th or below: 3%

Aston Villa
5th: <1%
6th: 1%
7th: 4%
8th: 8%
9th: 14%
10th: 20%
11th: 25%
12th: 14%
13th: 7%
14th or below: 5%

Aston Villa head coach Unai Emery during the Premier League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa at the American Express Community Stadium , Brighton , UK - 13th November 2022

READ: The Premier League table since Aston Villa appointed Unai Emery

Crystal Palace
6th, 7th & 8th: <1%
9th: 1%
10th: 3%
11th: 9%
12th: 18%
13th: 17%
14th: 15%
15th: 12%
16th: 9%
17th: 7%
18th: 5%
19th: 3%
20th: 1%

Leicester City
6th, 7th & 8th: <1%
9th: 2%
10th: 4%
11th: 8%
12th: 15%
13th: 16%
14th: 15%
15th: 12%
16th: 10%
17th: 8%
18th: 5%
19th: 4%
20th: 2%

West Ham
6th, 7th, 8th & 9th: <1%
10th: 3%
11th: 6%
12th: 12%
13th: 15%
14th: 15%
15th: 13%
16th: 11%
17th: 9%
18th: 7%
19th: 5%
20th: 3%

Wolves
6th, 7th, 8th & 9th: <1%
10th: 1%
11th: 5%
12th: 11%
13th: 15%
14th: 16%
15th: 15%
16th: 13%
17th: 10%
18th: 7%
19th: 4%
20th: 2%

Leeds United
7th, 8th, 9th & 10th: <1%
11th: 3%
12th: 7%
13th: 10%
14th: 11%
15th: 13%
16th: 13%
17th: 13%
18th: 12%
19th: 10%
20th: 7%

Nottingham Forest
8th, 9th & 10th: <1%
11th: 1%
12th: 3%
13th: 5%
14th: 8%
15th: 11%
16th: 14%
17th: 16%
18th: 16%
19th: 15%
20th: 10%

Everton
8th, 9th,10th & 11th: <1%
12th: 2%
13th: 3%
14th: 5%
15th: 7%
16th: 11%
17th: 14%
18th: 18%
19th: 20%
20th: 20%

Southampton
9th,10th & 11th: <1%
12th: 1%
13th: 3%
14th: 4%
15th: 7%
16th: 10%
17th: 13%
18th: 16%
19th: 21%
20th: 26%

Bournemouth
9th,10th & 11th: <1%
12th: 1%
13th: 3%
14th: 4%
15th: 6%
16th: 9%
17th: 11%
18th: 14%
19th: 19%
20th: 31%

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