Comparing every Prem club’s points total to their Expected Points

Quick Reads

While the Premier League table never lies, it doesn’t always tell the full story. 

The likes of Liverpool and Manchester United have picked up more points than they were predicted to based on their performances so far this season.

With data becoming increasingly important in football, people have been using metrics that work out the number of goals a team or player would be expected to score based on the quality and quantity of shots taken. Statistics always play a significant role when it comes to studying potential match outcomes, with the latest football betting odds being calculated based on the ever-changing results of each match.

Using the Expected Goals and Expected Goals against statistics, it’s even possible to work out Expected Points, or xPts for each team.

Thanks to the fine work of Mark O’Haire, we’ve compared every Premier League club’s points total to their Expected Points total.

1. Liverpool
Expected points: 15.69
Actual points: 17
Actual position: 3rd

2. Chelsea
Expected points: 14.85
Actual points: 15
Actual position: 5th

3. Tottenham
Expected points: 14.55
Actual points: 17
Actual position: 2nd

4. Leicester City
Expected points: 14.51
Actual points: 18
Actual position: 1st

• • • •

READ: Ranking the Premier League clubs by who is most affected by VAR in 2020-21

• • • •

5. Brighton
Expected points: 12.75
Actual points: 6
Actual position: 16th

6. Southampton
Expected points: 12.38
Actual points: 16
Actual position: 4th

7. Manchester City
Expected points: 12.27
Actual points: 12
Actual position: 10th

8. Aston Villa
Expected points: 11.61
Actual points: 15
Actual position: 6th

• • • •

READ: Can you name the 30 players with 50+ Premier League goals and assists

• • • •

9. Arsenal
Expected points: 11.18
Actual points: 12
Actual position: 11th

10. Everton
Expected points: 11.04
Actual points: 13
Actual position: 7th

11. West Ham
Expected points: 10.88
Actual points: 11
Actual position: 12th

12. Leeds United
Expected points: 10.64
Actual points: 10
Actual position: 15th

 

13. Newcastle United
Expected points: 9.17
Actual points: 11
Actual position: 13th

14. Crystal Palace
Expected points: 8.82
Actual points: 13
Actual position: 8th

15. Fulham
Expected points: 8.6
Actual points: 4
Actual position: 17th

16. Wolves
Expected points: 8.11
Actual points: 13
Actual position: 9th

• • • •

READ: The Premier League ‘big six’ head to head table in 2020-21: Liverpool top…

• • • •

17. Manchester United
Expected points: 8.1
Actual points: 10
Actual position: 14th

18. Burnley
Expected points: 7.25
Actual points: 2
Actual position: 19th

19. Sheffield United
Expected points: 7.01
Actual points: 1
Actual position: 20th

20. West Brom
Expected points: 5.39
Actual points: 3
Actual position: 18th

While statistics and analysis play a significant role in football, there’s no accounting for the unpredictability of each game. With a few surprises throughout the league table, this season is already shaping up to be one that defies expectations.


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