Which Premier League clubs have the best record when reduced to 10 men?
Some fans and pundits suggested the dismissal ‘killed the game’ at the Etihad as City ran riot with braces from Gabriel Jesus and Leroy Sane to secure a 5-0 victory.
However, City have won 70% of their Premier League games after a sending off in he last five years to prove it’s not always game over when teams lose a player.
The findings also revealed the Blues have the best scoring record when a man down. In nine of the 10 games which saw a City player receive a red card, the Manchester club still scored another goal after their numbers were reduced.
Furthermore, City have had the earliest dismissal while still going on to win a game. Vincent Kompany’s sending off after just 10 minutes against Hull City during the 2013-14 season still saw them go on to win the match 2-0.
By contrast, the research found that cross-city rival Manchester United have failed to score following 12 sending offs over the last five years, while Watford were unable to find the net when they were a man light during eight games.
However, it is Stoke City and Swansea City fans that really ought to worry the next time one of their players is sent off, with their sides winning none of their 16 and 11 games respectively with 10 men men over the past five years.
The top five clubs with 10 men over the last five years of Premier League fixtures
Man City – 70% win-rate across 10 games
Arsenal – 44%, 18 games
Everton – 38%, 13 games
Liverpool – 33%, 9 games
QPR – 33%, 6 games
The bottom five clubs with 10 men over the last five years of Premier League fixtures
Stoke – 0% win-rate from 16 games
Swansea – 0%, 11 games
Burnley – 0%, 4 games
Bournemouth – 0%, 4 games
West Brom – 10%, 10 games
Arsenal have had to play the greatest amount of time without a full 11, facing 615 minutes of Premier League football while a man down. This equates to almost seven whole matches over the five-year period, or 1.4 games per season.
It seems practice makes perfect though as Arsenal have an impressive 44% win-rate after losing a man, putting them second only to Manchester City.
Facing 10 men
West Ham are the most sinned-against team, with opponents receiving 22 red cards in the last five years, with Chelsea following closely behind on 21.
Fans of the Blues and Tottenham can feel pretty confident when the opposition loses a player – both sides go on to win 86% of games, more than any other Premier League side in the last five years. Chelsea have also only lost on 5% of occasions where they have a man advantage, with Spurs on 7%.
Burnley supporters though should not get their hopes up when they see the opposing team go down to 10 as the Clarets have failed to win in each of these five games, losing 60% of the time. They also concede the most to 10 men at an average of 0.6 goals per game.
Swansea City have the most impressive defensive record against a weakened side. They have faced the most games without conceding a goal to a 10-man team (10 matches).
Newcastle have picked up the most red cards against one club, having racked up a total of six dismissals in games against Liverpool. Arsenal also see red often when facing Chelsea, as do Sunderland against Hull (both four red cards).
Julian Beck commented, “Being a man light is a real challenge for players, especially when the dismissal is early on in a game. However, Manchester City in particular are showing this to be no more than a ‘10-man myth’ with a very impressive goal scoring record and ability to see out games, even after losing a player.
“There is also the old commentator cliché that facing a 10-man side can be more difficult, but fans of Chelsea, Tottenham and Swansea would certainly beg to differ having witnessed their sides take full advantage of having an extra player.
“Overall, we have found that teams with 10 men go on to lose 59% of matches, winning just one in five, so perhaps City are actually the exception rather than the rule.”