The 2021-22 Premier League xG table: Man Utd 7th, Spurs 4th…
We’re over halfway through the 2021-22 Premier League season, and the table seems to have taken shape – but can any clubs feel lucky or hard done by?
Manchester City and Liverpool have started to pull away from the rest of the chasing pack, but have their results reflected the quality of their performances?
Meanwhile, sides like Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham have had their struggles this season in terms of results, but what about the underlying performances?
The Expected Goals (xG) metric uses a complex algorithm to determine the quality of chances that each side has created and conceded this season, giving us a useful tool to measure how good their performances have actually been, regardless of the scorelines.
With data from Understat, here are the tables in terms of Expected Goals so far this season.
Expected Goals (xG)
1. Liverpool – 61.17
2. Manchester City – 60.26
3. Chelsea – 42.87
4. West Ham – 39.03
5. Manchester United – 38.40
6. Arsenal – 35.65
7. Tottenham – 35.35
8. Crystal Palace – 31.78
9. Brentford – 31.23
10. Leeds United – 30.42
11. Leicester – 30.38
12. Everton – 28.66
13. Brighton – 28.56
14. Southampton – 28.42
15. Wolverhampton Wanderers – 25.10
16. Watford – 24.08
17. Aston Villa – 23.70
18. Newcastle United – 23.24
19. Burnley – 20.27
20. Norwich – 18.46
As expected, City and Liverpool haven’t been lucky this season – their attacks really are just that devastatingly good. Then you’ll see the usual suspects from the rest of the Big Six, alongside top four challengers West Ham, comfortably in the top half in terms of the quality of the chances they create.
At the other end of the table, you see relegation battlers Burnley and Norwich struggle quite dramatically in terms of fashioning chances, while the likes of Leeds and Leicester aren’t doing too shabbily in that regard – their underwhelming seasons are more due to their underperforming defences (see below).
Expected Goals Against (xGA)
1. Manchester City – 16.00
2. Chelsea – 22.63
3. Liverpool – 23.00
4. Brighton – 26.39
5. Tottenham – 28.32
6. Wolves – 29.07
7. Crystal Palace – 29.11
8. Arsenal – 30.20
9. Brentford – 32.29
10. Everton – 33.63
11. West Ham – 33.95
12. Aston Villa – 33.80
13. Burnley – 34.10
14. Manchester United – 34.65
15. Southampton – 38.65
16. Leicester – 40.84
17. Watford – 40.99
18. Leeds United – 41.65
19. Newcastle United – 41.82
20. Norwich – 46.04
League leaders City are also out in front in this regard, while Chelsea just about edge Liverpool in terms of their defensive resilience.
Elsewhere, Arsenal are quite considerably overperforming in terms of their actual goals conceded (five fewer), while Manchester United are shockingly all the way down in 14th in terms of the quality of chances they allow the opposition.
Once again, this chart doesn’t make pretty reading for Norwich, Newcastle, Watford – and Leeds.
Expected Points (xPTS)
1. Manchester City – 59.59
2. Liverpool – 54.27
3. Chelsea – 44.82
4. West Ham – 38.24
5. Manchester United – 36.72
6. Arsenal – 36.50
7. Crystal Palace – 35.38
8. Brentford – 35.13
9. Tottenham – 35.04
10. Brighton – 33.43
11. Wolves – 29.56
12. Everton – 28.01
13. Southampton – 27.48
14. Leeds – 27.18
15. Aston Villa – 25.38
16. Leicester – 24.61
17. Watford – 21.29
18. Newcastle United – 20.52
19. Burnley – 18.47
20. Norwich – 17.29
Expected Points (xPTS) uses the for and against xG on a game-by-game basis to determine how many points a side should have taken.
Once again, City, Liverpool and Chelsea are comfortably in front in that regard, while Burnley, Norwich, Newcastle and Watford comprise the bottom four. The table doesn’t lie.
xG Differential
1. Manchester City – +44.26
2. Liverpool – +38.17
3. Chelsea – +20.24
4. Tottenham – +7.03
5. Arsenal – +5.45
6. West Ham – +5.08
7. Manchester United – +3.75
8. Crystal Palace – +2.67
9. Brighton – +2.17
10. Brentford – -1.06
11. Wolverhampton Wanderers – -3.97
12. Everton – -4.97
13. Aston Villa – -10.1
14. Southampton – 10.23
15. Leicester – -10.46
16. Leeds United – -11.23
17. Burnley – -13.83
18. Watford – -16.91
19. Newcastle United – -18.52
20. Norwich – -23.36
Nine sides this season have created more in terms of xG than they’ve allowed the opposition – that includes Brighton and Crystal Palace, who might feel they ought to be a little higher in the table than they actually are, while Brentford perhaps ought to be a little more secure in midtable.
Unsurprisingly, we see Norwich stuck to the foot of the table, while Aston Villa, Leicester, Southampton and Leeds aren’t exactly pulling up trees in terms of their underlying numbers.
This is perhaps the starkest evidence of quite how far ahead of the competition the top two have been this season.