Comparing Leeds, Burnley and Sheffield United’s fixture difficulty in the Championship promotion race

The Championship promotion race looks set to go right down to the wire, with just two points separating Sheffield United, Leeds United and Burnley as we approach the final run-in.

But who will achieve automatic promotion to make it back into the Premier League, and which of the three will have to make do with the dreaded play-offs? We’ve taken a closer look at the run-in.

Sunderland had kept the pace with the top three for most of the season but fell away before the March international break. The Wearside outfit will be hoping for a miracle, but to make up nine points would require two of the top three to completely collapse.

Leeds looked as though they were cruising back to the top flight after a sensational run of form to kick off 2025. At one point in March, data specialists Opta put their chances of promotion at 98.5%.

But the Yorkshire club never make things easy for themselves and they’re threatening to implode as they did in the final weeks of last season.

After a big, statement victory at Bramall Lane, Leeds have won just one of their last five matches and allowed the gap at the top to tighten.

Sheffield United have done well to put the setback behind them and keep the pace. They’re now back onto the top spot and Chris Wilder will be confident of getting them over the line – having done so before.

As with Daniel Farke, Scott Parker already has two Championship promotions on his CV and he’s now gunning to make it another with a third club.

Burnley are on course to break all kinds of defensive records, while in recent weeks their attack has just shown signs of starting to click. That could prove a successful combination.

We’ve broken down the remaining fixtures for all three teams, including the position of their opponents at the time of writing and their results in the reverse fixtures.

Sheffield United – 83 points

– Oxford United (A) – 19th – [3-0 Win]
– Millwall (H) – 13th – [0-1 Win]
– Plymouth Argyle (A) – 24th – [2-0 Win]
– Cardiff City (H) – 22nd – [0-2 Win]
– Burnley (A) – 3rd – [0-2 Loss]
– Stoke City (A) – 18th – [2-0 Win]
– Blackburn Rovers (H) – 11th – [0-2 Win]

Average position of remaining opponents: 15.7
Points taken from reverse fixtures: 18

Chris Wilder’s Blades are in the driving seat, having taken 13 of the last 15 points on offer with an emphatic response to the defeat to chasers Leeds last month. And they’d be four points clear were it not for their points penalty for defaulting on payments to other clubs during the 2022-23 season.

They’ve already beaten – whilst keeping a clean sheet each time – six of their last seven remaining opponents, while they’ll be looking for revenge when they face promotion rivals Burnley two weeks before the end of the window.

Millwall don’t have a great deal to play for, while on current form it looks as though Blackburn Rovers will be on the beach come the final weekend, given how they’ve fallen away from the play-off picture since the departure of manager John Eustance.

Five of Sheffield United’s final seven opponents are in the bottom half, with it looking likely that Oxford, Plymouth, Cardiff and Stoke will be scrapping for survival by the time the fixtures roll around.

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Leeds United – 81 points

– Luton Town (A) – 23rd – [3-0 Win]
– Middlesbrough (A) – 7th – [3-1 Win]
– Preston (H) – 14th – [1-1 Draw]
– Oxford United (A) – 19th – [4-0 Win]
– Stoke City (H) – 18th – [0-2 Win]
– Bristol City (H) – 8th – [1-1 Draw]
– Plymouth Argyle (A) – 24th –  [3-0 Win]

Average position of remaining opponents: 16.1
Points taken from reverse fixtures: 17

Leeds are unbeaten against their remaining opponents, but repeat draws at home to midtable Preston and play-off chasers Bristol City could prove terminal to their hopes of automatic promotion.

After the back-to-back victories over Sunderland and Sheffield United, it appears that Daniel Farke’s side have used up their wiggle room and can’t afford many more slip-ups in the run-in.

On paper, Leeds have the ‘easiest’ run-in of the three – but it’s marginal, and their remaining opponents look motivated by either the play-offs or survival.

Preston are the only remaining side that won’t have much to play for, while Leeds will be hoping that bottom-placed Plymouth will already be down by the time their trip to the south coast on the final weekend comes around.

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Burnley – 81 points

– Coventry (A) – 5th – [2-0 Win]
– Derby County (A) – 20th – [0-0 Draw]
– Norwich City (H) – 10th – [1-2 Win]
– Watford (H) – 9th – [2-1 Win]
– Sheffield United (H) – 1st – [0-2 Win]
– QPR (A) – 15th – [0-0 Draw]
– Millwall (H) – 13th – [1-0 Loss]

Average position of remaining opponents: 10.4
Points taken from reverse fixtures: 17

Scott Parker’s defensively sound Clarets are also unbeaten against their remaining opponents, with wins over Coventry, Norwich, Watford, Sheffield United and Millwall alongside characteristically cagey goalless draws away to Derby and QPR in the earlier reverse fixtures.

Midtable QPR and Millwall in the last two weekends look like relatively forgiving final fixtures, but before then they have to navigate a number of potential banana skins.

Coventry have been in sensational form under Frank Lampard and will be looking to consolidate their play-off spot by bouncing back from last weekend’s limp defeat to Sheffield United. Derby have picked up considerably after bringing in Eustace, while Watford and Norwich remain in the race for the top six.

Hosting league leaders Sheffield United has the makings of a promotion showdown and will do a favour for Leeds, with the guarantee of dropped points for one – if not both – of their challengers.