Comparing Nottingham Forest’s Premier League record at this stage to Leicester’s in 2015-16
Nottingham Forest have picked up the same number of points at this stage of the season as Leicester City did in their unforgettable, fairytale 2015-16 Premier League title-winning campaign. They couldn’t, could they?
Leicester’s 5000-1 miracle back is undoubtedly the greatest underdog story in Premier League history. And in the eight seasons since then, there’s been nothing close to it as Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have enjoyed a reign of dominance.
But Nottingham Forest have been exceptional this season and we’re now past the halfway stage of the 2024-25 campaign, which begs the question – are they the real deal?
After scrapping to survive over the last couple of seasons, ending up 17th last term, absolutely no one predicted that Nuno Espirito Santo’s side would finish above midtable, let alone look a genuine contender for Champions League qualification.
They’ve now won six successive matches, keeping clean sheets in each of the last four, ahead of hosting Liverpool in midweek.
Forest are the only side to have beaten Arne Slot’s table-toppers in the league so far this season, while an against-all-odds double would move them to within three points of the top spot.
Should they do it, it would be as big a statement as Leicester City going away to Manchester City in February 2016 and winning 3-1 – the moment the penny dropped for many that the impossible might actually be on.
The parallels between Forest and Leicester are many. From a solid structure to a cohesive counter-attacking gameplan to a striker in the form of his life. Both sides average the lowest share of possession in the top flight and are rock solid without the ball while absolutely deadly with it.
Forest are even more solid defensively than Claudio Ranieri’s Foxes were that year. They’ve conceded 10 fewer goals and kept four more clean sheets after 20 games, while at the other end Chris Wood (12 goals) only has three fewer than Jamie Vardy (15) had at this stage.
The key difference at this point is that while the stars aligned in 2015-16 for all the ‘big six’ favourites to have an off year while Leicester flourished, this time around Liverpool look like formidable opposition.
But Manchester United, Tottenham and Manchester City have all fallen well below expectations, this young Chelsea side don’t quite look like challengers just yet and Arsenal have suffered with injuries to key players and taken a notable dip.
It’s easy to forget that Arsenal actually led the way at this stage in 2015-16 and were the heavy favourites after beating Leicester as late as Valentine’s Day that year.
Liverpool have dropped points in three of their last six Premier League outings and recently suffered their second defeat of the season in the League Cup semis against Tottenham. Could this be a mid-season wobble from Slot’s side? Who’s to say they won’t fall away like Arsenal in 2015-16?
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Here’s how Nottingham Forest’s 2024-25 campaign stacks up against Leicester’s unforgettable 2015-16 at the same stage:
Nottingham Forest – 2024-25
Played: 20
Points: 40
Won: 12
Drawn: 4
Lost: 4
Goals for: 29
Goals against: 19
Clean Sheets: 9
Goal Difference: +10
Win rate: 60%
Loss rate: 20%
Leicester City – 2015-16
Played: 20
Points: 40
Won: 11
Drawn: 7
Lost: 2
Goals for: 37
Goals against: 25
Clean Sheets: 5
Goal Difference: +12
Win rate: 55%
Loss rate: 10%