World Cup Golden Boot Power Rankings: Will Kane or Mbappe make history in 2026?
Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, Ronaldo, Gary Lineker… Some legendary footballers have won the Golden Boot award for being the top scorer at a World Cup. Who will add their name to the list this year?
The expanded 48-team format means more matches, more opportunities and potentially bigger goal tallies than any previous World Cup.
Before a ball is even kicked, here’s our ranking of the 10 likeliest contenders to claim the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup. We’ll be keeping this one updated through every round of fixtures, so keep checking back.
10. Cristiano Ronaldo
The only man to have scored at five World Cups, the all-time top goalscorer in the history of international football can extend that record and make it six this summer.
The problem? Contrary to his exceptional goalscoring return in the Champions League, Ronaldo’s World Cup record is downright ordinary.
Eight goals in total. One every 2.75 games, or just 1.6 per World Cup. He’s (in)famously never scored in the knockout stages.
To get the Golden Boot this summer, he’d likely have to match his tally from his last five World Cups combined. At the age of 41 and having played walking football out in Saudi Arabia since the last World Cup… It’s not going to happen, is it?
To play devil’s advocate, Ronaldo had a respectable record in qualifying, and in the Saudi Pro League, has never been blessed with such a strong supporting cast (Bruno Fernandes’ assists record speaks for itself) and has the full support of manager Roberto Martinez.
Ronaldo’s goal in last year’s Nations League final over Spain last year shows he still possesses a poacher’s instinct. While DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia make up an incredibly forgiving group-stage draw.
We can’t see it, but it’s not totally beyond the realms of possibility if Portugal’s band of creative maestros can serve up chances.
9. Lionel Messi
Argentina’s legendary captain won the Golden Ball award for best player four years ago, and he was also on for the Golden Boot before Mbappe’s quickfire brace and the absolute madness that unfolded from seventy minutes in the last World Cup final.
We can’t see him bettering that tally of his tally of seven goals last time out, but you never know. He was superb for Inter Miami in 2025, has been in excellent form of late, and was the top-scoring player in South American qualifying.
Algeria, Austria and Jordan – no gimmes, by any stretch – ought to give us a solid idea of whether he, and Argentina, can replicate that magical chemistry from Qatar.
8. Raphinha
It’s funny to think that Brazil’s all-time top goalscorer is heading to this World Cup, and yet some bookmakers are pricing Neymar as long as 175/1.
God knows what kind of shape he’s in, or how much he’ll feature under Carlo Ancelotti, but we wouldn’t be surprised if one of his Selecao team-mates features high in the scoring charts.
Barcelona star Raphinha has an excellent record for his country. He’s the third top scorer in the squad, behind Neymar and Lucas Paqueta, and has stepped up most frequently in the absence of Neymar over these past three rocky years.
Morocco will be tricky, although they shouldn’t be as defensive as last time, but Scotland and particularly Haiti could easily give us an Oleg Salenko-type situation where the Golden Boot winner fills their boots in the group stage.
7. Mikel Oryazabal
The man who broke England’s hearts in the Euro 2024 final.
The Real Sociedad striker has progressed beyond that super-sub role. He’s now La Roja’s main man up top after Luis de la Fuente lost patience in the misfiring Alvaro Morata, who didn’t even make the 55-man preliminary squad.
Oryazabal comes into this tournament off the back of the best season of his career to date, while Spain’s talented array of wingers and midfielders ought to create him plenty of chances.
Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and an out-of-sorts Uruguay in the groups? Big opportunity to lay down a marker.
6. Michael Olise
The former Crystal Palace man notched 31 assists in all competitions last season. A return of 22 goals for Bayern Munich wasn’t too shabby, either.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of role he plays alongside at least two other absolute superstars in France’s forward line.
Olise’s hat-trick in Les Bleus’ final warm-up friendly against Northern Ireland, his third goal an absolutely spectacular strike, suggests he might be gearing up to outshine his team-mates.
Watch this space. He’s already one of the world’s best wingers.
5. Erling Haaland
The Norwegian comes into this World Cup off the back of a third Premier League Golden Boot in four years.
Only one man scored more goals across Europe’s five major leagues in 2025-26, and no top scorer prediction would be complete without a mention of Haaland.
He also absolutely obliterated UEFA qualifying, scoring 16(!) goals – twice as many as any other player – as Norway made their first World Cup this century with a sparkling 100% winning record.
Haaland could fill his boots in their opener against Iraq, but things get considerably tougher from there with France and Senegal.
We are taking Norway seriously, obliged to call them dark horses, but we still have doubts they’ll go as deep into the competition as the other more established powerhouses in this top 10.
4. Vinicius Junior
We noted that Raphinha has tended to be the man to step up for Brazil in the absence of Neymar in recent years.
That’s certainly true, with Vini Jr’s record for Brazil downright dismal in comparison to his Real Madrid output. Just nine goals in 49 minutes is simply not good enough for a player of his superstar status.
Not to contradict ourselves, but we just have a feeling that’s all about to change. Vini has an excellent goalscoring return in 2026 so far, and you get the sense he’ll revel in Mbappe not being there to step on his toes.
If he can’t score against Haiti or Scotland, he really can forget about his Ballon d’Or ambitions.
3. Lamine Yamal
It’s kind of ridiculous to place one of the youngest players at the tournament so high, but Yamal is no ordinary 18-year-old.
He’s not (yet) been especially prolific, certainly in comparison to the European Golden Shoe winners that populate the top end of this list, but he just looks on the precipice of taking things up another level entirely.
We’re talking the sort of rise that only comes along once in a generation; think Pele at the 1958 World Cup. That kind of level. Pressure? Yamal seems to revel in it.
The big question is how sharp he is after nursing a hamstring injury for the past couple of months. Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay ought to give us an indication.
2. Kylian Mbappe
The 2022 Golden Boot winner is the bookmakers’ favourite to retain the award, and it’s not difficult to see why.
Mbappe is France’s all-time top goalscorer, has a proven track record at turning up at big tournaments, and approaches this year’s tournament with Miroslav Klose’s all-time top scorer record in his sights.
Still, France’s tricky group and the fact that they’ve got other players just as capable of scoring goals makes us think he shouldn’t quite be the early favourite.
QUIZ: Can you name every single player to score 10+ World Cup goals?
1. Harry Kane
No one has won a World Cup Golden Boot more than once – but Kane has an excellent chance to write his name into the history books this summer.
He just claimed a second European Golden Shoe in three years. He scored a career-best 61 goals in all competitions for Bayern, one of the best individual goalscoring seasons of all time.
The England captain ended the season by scoring a hat-trick in a cup final, and marked his last Three Lions friendly appearance with yet another goal.
Thomas Tuchel has everything set up to get the best out of their star man, who – in his own words – is feeling as sharp physically as he ever has before.
England face Panama again, against whom Kane scored a hat-trick when he won the Golden Boot in 2018, while Croatia and Ghana don’t exactly complete a group of death.
The omens look very, very good.
READ NEXT: The 10 youngest players at the 2026 World Cup: Lamine Yamal doesn’t quite make the cut
TRY A QUIZ: Can you name every World Cup Golden Boot winner since 1966?