Third-place watch: What Scotland need to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages
We are getting toward the crunch stage of the 2026 World Cup and for the first time, eight of the best third-placed teams will go through.
While it was pretty easy to work out who would go through in previous editions, the expansion to 48 teams has meant there is a lot more maths involved as qualification is no longer dependent on just your group.
Eight of the best third-placed teams will go through to the knockouts, meaning just 16 teams will go home overall.
Football Meets Data has crunched the numbers and suggest any team on four points has at least a 98.9% chance of qualifying for the next round.
As we drop down to three points, goal difference becomes crucial. Those with a neutral or positive GD have a good chance of going through. Dipping into the negative makes it tougher with minus 1 given an 87.5% chance of qualifying, while it is 69.4% for minus two.
It is then 47.3% for minus 3 and 29.2% for minus 4.
It is in theory not impossible to qualify with two points but the data suggests that having that with a minus one GD only gives you a 6.6% chance of progressing.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current standings in each group.
Mexico have already qualified as winners of Group A. but any of the other three teams could go through. South Korea are second on three points while both Czechia and South Africa have one point after two games.
South Korea face South Africa in the final game knowing a point should be enough to go through in second place.
For Czechia, defeating Mexico – who may rest players in the final game – would push them into the positive goal difference and so likely see them through in third. A draw would not be enough on this occasion.
South Africa meanwhile need to defeat South Korea and better Czechia’s result by two goals.
In Group B, it will come down to a final-match decider between Bosnia and Qatar who are on one point and so both need a win. Victory for either should see them over the line.
In Group C, Scotland are mathematically in a good spot already on three points. The only problem is they face Brazil in their final game.
While this Brazil may not be up to the standard we are used to, it is still a daunting opponent but if Scotland manage to avoid defeat, that should be enough for qualification. Even a loss would not be terminal but Scotland need to keep the scoreline to a minimum as they are currently on a zero goal difference.
In Group D, Turkey are already out and the USA confirmed as group winners, leaving Australia and Paraguay to fight it out in their final match against each other.
Both are tied on three points currently and so a draw would likely see them both qualify but each would rather finish as runner-up. A defeat would also be a lot more costly for Paraguay who are currently on -2 but there is still a 47.3% chance they go through on -3.
Everyone can theoretically still go through in Group E, even with Germany already qualified.
Behind them, Ivory Coast are on three while Ecuador and Curacao are both on one. Should the latter beat Ivory Coast in their final game, they should go through even with a poor goal difference.
Ecuador meanwhile have to beat Germany to go through.
Ivory Coast need to just avoid defeat to Curacao to confirm second spot.
Group F is very close with the Netherlands and Japan on four points each and tied on goal difference. While those two will want to avoid finishing second due to the tricky knockout path that would give them, they could in theory finish as low as third.
For that to happen, Sweden would have to beat Japan in the final game and the Dutch lose to Tunisia.
A 5-1 hammering at the hands of the Netherlands has reset Sweden’s goal difference to zero and so they need to avoid a big defeat in the final game to qualify as one of the third-best teams.
Group G has proven to be the group of draws with just one win after four games. That went to Egypt who are realistically already through.
As for the teams behind them, Iran and Belgium could both go through with a draw as they are on a neutral goal difference. New Zealand though need to beat Belgium which should see them through.
Group H is a similar story with Spain the only team having won a game so far. They are on four points ahead of their final match against Uruguay.
For the Uruguayans, they need a result from that game as Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia play each other. A draw for Uruguay should be enough with their neutral goal difference which is the same for Cape Verde.
Saudi Arabia, on one point, need to win.
The top two in Group I have already been decided with France and Norway on six points each ahead of their game.
That leaves Senegal and Iraq fighting for that third-place spot and it is the African team that has a better chance of going through.
They are on minus three goal difference and so a win by two goals should be enough for qualification. Iraq meanwhile need a big victory to overturn their minus six deficit.
In Group J, a draw between Austria and Algeria would see both of them through. Jordan are already out before their match against already qualified Argentina.
Colombia have already qualified from Group K, while Portugal are surely through after collecting four points from two matches.
This means a showdown between two World Cup minnows. DR Congo have one point and minus one goal difference, meaning a win over Uzbekistan will surely be enough to go through.
The Uzbeks are on zero points and minus seven goal difference, meaning even a win is unlikely to be enough.
Group L sees England and Ghana on four points, both likely to progress even if they lose their final matches.
Panama are already out, while Croatia are on three points. They face Ghana knowing any kind of result should see them through, but losing could put them in danger. The Croats currently have a minus one goal difference.
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