The insane Pep Guardiola stat that spells doom for Arsenal’s title hopes

Arsenal and Manchester City are locked into yet another title race. The last two times the two clubs have done battle for the top spot, City have come out on top. As Guardiola teams invariably do when locked in a white-hot title race.

Indeed, in 2022-23, Arsenal came up short by five points as City won the title, and the following season, they pushed them remarkably close, heartbreakingly finishing with just two points fewer than their title rivals.

Currently, the Gunners are four points clear at the top of the table, but one stat about Guardiola’s career should strike fear into his former disciple Mikel Arteta.

Every time Guardiola is in a title race, he wins it. That sounds like a bold claim that needs some backing up, and we have the stats to do just that.

Guardiola has failed to win the title in just four seasons since he became a coach in 2007. Of those four seasons, after 26 matches (the current number played in the Premier League) the title had essentially already slipped Guardiola’s grasp.

In 2011-12, as Barcelona manager, Guardiola saw Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid 10 points clear at that stage. In his Premier League career with City, the Spaniard was 10 points back in 2016-17, 22 points back in 2019-20 and 19 points back in 2024-25.

In those seasons, Barcelona finished second, and City finished third, second and third again.

Every single season of Guardiola’s managerial career, other than those three, the Catalan coach has won the title. That’s 12 seasons in total in Europe’s major leagues and one in the Spanish fourth tier while managing Barcelona B.

That means that every time he’s been at least within five points of the leader at this stage of the season, as is the case now, Guardiola has lifted the title.

One of the most impressive of those successful seasons was in a fierce battle with Liverpool in 2018-19. After 26 games, the Reds topped the table by three points.

By the time the final game of the campaign came around, City were one point clear at the top, and both they and Liverpool won on the final weekend, meaning the Citizens kept their one-point gap for one of the closest Premier League finishes ever.

At the 26-game stage in 2022-23, City were five points behind Arsenal, who maintained that gap until they slipped on matchday 30, drawing 2-2 to Liverpool while the Citizens beat Southampton 4-1.

The Gunners had been 2-0 up before Liverpool dragged the game back, and the following week, City cut the gap to one point as once again, Guardiola’s side won and Arteta’s drew.

Both sides drew in the 32nd game of the season, before City beat Arsenal 4-1 in the 33rd to take the lead for the title, eventually stretching that to five points by the end of the campaign.

While the Gunners are in the lead at the moment, there’s no guarantee they won’t be caught by City. Previous years suggest that City will surge past their title rivals before the season is up. It’s just what Guardiola teams do.

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